Which Fantasy Football Projections Are Most Accurate?
This article is originally published at https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/
In this article, we dive into the performance of various fantasy football projection sources. Using Mean Absolute Error to measure accuracy over the last five seasons, we explore which sources consistently provide the most accurate projections and highlight trends in recent performance. We’ll break down the results by position and offer final thoughts and recommendations for which sources fantasy managers should rely on moving forward.
Methods to Evaluate Projections
To assess the accuracy of fantasy football projections across various sources, we used the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) as the primary metric for evaluating projection performance. The MAE provides a straightforward and interpretable measure of accuracy by calculating the average absolute difference between projected and actual player performance.
The analysis covers the 2019 to 2023 NFL seasons and focuses on the top 20 projected QBs and TEs, and the top 50 projected RBs and WRs for each source. We also evaluated two different sets of projections from Fantasy Football Analytics (FFA):
- FFA Average: A simple average of projections across all available sources.
- FFA Weighted Average: A weighted average based on the accuracy of each source in the prior seasons. Sources with lower MAE in previous years were given greater weight, ensuring the most accurate projections had a stronger influence. For example, data from 2020 and 2021 determined the weights for 2022 projections, while data from 2020–2022 was used to calculate weights for 2023. This method prioritizes sources with a strong track record of recent accuracy, giving them greater influence on the weighted average.
ESPN data were excluded from the final analysis due to incomplete data (available for only 2019 and 2023). All sources in the comparison had at least four seasons of data during the 2019-2023 period, ensuring consistency and fairness in the evaluation. This methodology allowed us to evaluate the consistency and accuracy of each source while considering different strategies for combining projections, both simple and weighted.
Who Has the Best Projections?
Quarterback Projections
CBS led QB projections over the last five seasons, with the best accuracy in 2019. However, its performance declined in recent years, ranking fifth in the last three seasons. FantasySharks showed strong improvement, moving from second in the 5-year rankings to first in the 3-year span. FFA Average and FFA Weighted remained steady, finishing in the top four across both periods. FFA Average had a standout year in 2020, delivering the top QB projections that year. FFToday improved significantly in recent years, jumping from fifth in the five-year average to second in the last three years while delivering the most accurate QB projections in 2021 and 2022. Meanwhile, RTSports, NumberFire, and NFL struggled with consistency, ranking near the bottom, although NFL had the best projections in 2023.
Running Back Projections
CBS also led RB projections over the five-year average but slipped to third in the last three seasons. FFToday’s accuracy was again strong, going from the second most accurate projections to ranking first in the last three years with top projections in 2021 and 2022. FFA Average showed great accuracy and consistency with the third and second most accurate projections over the last five and three years, while FFA Weighted ranked fourth over both periods. NFL was consistently middle tier, finishing fifth. NumberFire, FantasySharks, and RTSports lagged behind, struggling to deliver accurate RB projections.
Wide Receiver Projections
FFToday was the top source for WR projections, consistently leading both the 5-year and 3-year periods, with the best projections from 2020 to 2022. CBS ranked second over five years but dropped to fourth in the last three seasons, despite a strong 2023. NumberFire ranked third over five years but became less accurate recently, dropping to fifth. Additionally, the FFA Average continued with its steady performance, finishing second in the last three years. The FFA Weighted outperformed the simple average and ranked fourth over the last five seasons but fell behind the simple average ranking third in more recent seasons. Both versions of the FFA projections showed they can be trusted as accurate WR projections year in and year out. FantasySharks, NFL, and RTSports underperformed throughout both periods.
Tight End Projections
NumberFire was the most accurate source for TE projections, excelling in 2019 and 2022, and ranking second over the last three years. The FFA Average ranked third over the five-year period but fell to fifth over the three-year period while the FFA Weighted outperformed the simple average and ranked in the top three across both periods. FFToday improved significantly, finishing first in the last three years, with top projections in 2020, 2021, and 2023. CBS remained consistent but mediocre, while FantasySharks, NFL, and RTSports struggled to produce accurate projections.
Accuracy Table (MAE by Season)
Accuracy Bar Graph (5-Year MAE)
The Value of FFA Average Projections
The true strength of the FFA Average lies in its outstanding consistency, both year over year and across all positions. While other sources may occasionally produce the best projections in a given season, they often experience sharp declines in accuracy causing unpredictability from year to year. For example, CBS ranked first for QB projections in 2019 but dropped significantly in subsequent years—finishing sixth in 2021, second in 2022, and seventh in 2023.
In contrast, the FFA Projections remain reliably near the top. Whether using the simple or weighted average, they consistently rank among the top sources across all positions and seasons, rarely falling far behind the best performer in any given year. This dependability is what sets the FFA Average apart—its projections may not always claim the number one spot, but they don’t experience the drastic fluctuations that other sources do. The difference between FFA projections and the best source in a single season is often small, but the gap between FFA and lower-ranked sources is much more substantial.
A key takeaway from our analysis is that the FFA Average frequently performs as well as, and sometimes better than, the Weighted Average. This highlights the lack of consistent, year-to-year accuracy among individual sources and underscores the power of the "wisdom of the crowd."
By aggregating projections, the FFA projections minimize the risk of relying on a volatile source, providing a stable and dependable tool for fantasy football decision-making. Even if an individual source rises to the top in a given year, it rarely maintains that performance. The FFA Average, however, consistently delivers top-tier accuracy across every position. This makes it invaluable for fantasy managers who prioritize long-term reliability over chasing the "best" projection in a single season.
In any given year, you can expect the FFA projections to perform at or near the top for all positions. No other source can match this level of consistent, cross-positional accuracy.
Wrapping Up
The most reliable fantasy football projection sources are those that consistently produce accurate projections across all positions and seasons. While some sources may shine in a particular year, the FFA Average stands out for its steady top-tier accuracy year after year for all positions. This consistency makes it a great tool for fantasy managers seeking accurate projections that help minimizing risk and drastic fluctuations from year to year. But don't take our word for it. You can use web-app the to evaluate historical accuracy for yourself.
The post Which Fantasy Football Projections Are Most Accurate? appeared first on Fantasy Football Analytics.
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